Scapegoating Lead-Based Ammunition: Why Bullets Aren’t the Smoking Gun in Vulture Declines

Nicolette van der Merwe | WRSA

30 June 2025

The widespread decline of vulture populations across Africa has rightly become a significant conservation concern. While various anthropogenic threats contribute to this crisis, the narrative often points to lead-based ammunition as a primary culprit for unintended, secondary lead poisoning in these scavenging birds. However, an in-depth look at available evidence and arguments from stakeholders in South Africa suggests that this may not be the main source of mortality, and that other, often more pervasive, threats demand greater attention.

Lack of Definitive Autopsy Reports Linking Lead Ammunition to Mortality

A key argument put forth by organizations such as the SA Wingshooters Association (SAWA) is the lack of robust scientific evidence directly linking lead-based ammunition to mass vulture mortalities in South Africa. SAWA asserts that, to date, no studies in South Africa regarding the potential impact of lead shotgun pellets or other ammunition on gamebirds and animals have been recorded, and there are no reports of substantial numbers dying from lead poisoning caused by lead in ammunition, including vultures. International organisations such as the British Association for Shooting & Conservation (BASC) also emphasize that global studies show minimal impact findings from lead ammunition, concluding that there is no overwhelming proof that lead-based ammunition poses a serious threat or decline to vultures in Southern Africa.

While a study by van den Heever et al. (2019) found elevated blood and bone lead levels in South African Gyps vultures, including nest-bound chicks, concluding that metallic lead fragments ingested from hunted animal carcasses were the likely source, it does not explicitly present autopsy reports proving lead ammunition as the direct cause of mortality for these specific cases. The study indicated that 12% of White-backed Vultures and 9% of Cape Vultures had lead burdens consistent with subclinical to severe clinical lead poisoning upon their deaths. However, it notes that such sub-lethal effects could make birds more vulnerable to other causes of mortality, implying lead may be a contributing factor rather than the sole, definitive cause of death demonstrated by autopsy. Arnold Slabbert, a renowned conservationist with 37 years of professional experience in wildlife rehabilitation, states they have not encountered a single case of lead poisoning. Slabbert also asserts that the focus on lead by certain groups often ignores the “indisputable hard facts about pesticides and poisons,” which are considered the greatest threat to wildlife survival.

SAWA maintains that direct lead poisoning, caused by ingesting large metal particles, poses little threat to mammals, including humans, as the lead passes through the digestive system quickly. However, they acknowledge that in birds with gizzards, lead does accumulate, is ground into small particles, rapidly oxidizes in digestive acids, and poisons the bird. Yet, the overall risk from ammunition is still insignificantly small compared to other threats – particularly in light of the precision and discipline involved in modern ballistics.

Multiple, Overlapping Threats to Vultures

The threat to South African vultures is multifaceted, extending far beyond potential lead exposure. The “Draft Multi-Species Biodiversity Management Plan (BMP) for Vultures in South Africa” supposedly identifies poisoning, both intentional and unintentional, as the most significant threat. This includes the consumption of poisoned carcasses meant for other species or those treated with harmful veterinary medicines.

Beyond poisoning, the BMP outlines several other major threats:

Energy Infrastructure: Collisions with and electrocutions by power lines and wind turbines are significant contributors to vulture mortalities. Large-bodied birds like vultures are particularly vulnerable to electrocution due to their wingspan and gregarious roosting behavior.
Habitat Loss and Degradation: Changes in land use due to agricultural intensification, development, and bush encroachment reduce foraging ranges and suitable nesting sites.
Human Disturbance: Activities near breeding colonies such as construction, agriculture, aviation, mining, and recreational activities can cause breeding failure and colony abandonment.
Diseases: While information on the prevalence in South Africa is limited, exposure to poultry diseases and increased microbial activity due to rising temperatures are potential risks.
Drowning: Vultures occasionally drown in farm reservoirs, especially if they are already weakened or poisoned.
Direct Persecution/Illegal Killing: This includes trapping, shooting, and the illegal harvesting of vulture body parts for traditional medicine or as a means to conceal poaching activities.
Climate Change: Increased temperatures can negatively impact body condition and breeding success, potentially leading to range contractions.

Arnold Slabbert, conservationist and wildlife rehabilitation specialist, highlights that 30-50% of raptors admitted to care are victims of poisoning, specifically secondary rodenticide poisoning and agricultural chemicals like organophosphates. This is followed by deliberate persecution (10%), with other causes like motor vehicles, power lines, fences, viruses, and accidents accounting for the remainder. Slabbert explicitly states they have not seen a single case of lead poisoning in the thousands of raptors they have treated.

Intentional Poisoning as a More Frequent Cause of Mass Die-Offs

Evidence strongly indicates that intentional poisoning, primarily for African traditional medicine and to control predators or conceal poaching, accounts for a far greater number of vulture mortalities than lead ammunition. The BMP identifies intentional poisoning for African traditional medicine as a “major threat” in West, Central, and Southern Africa. Over 90 vulture carcasses, including White-backed, Lappet-faced, and White-headed Vultures, were recovered in northern KwaZulu-Natal in 2019-2020 due to targeted poisonings linked to traditional medicine trade.

Studies estimate that 160 vultures are sold annually for this purpose, with 59,000 vulture parts consumed in eastern South Africa each year. One association of traditional health practitioners in Bushbuckridge alone may use 400-800 vultures annually (Mashele et al. 2021a, b).

Sentinel poisoning, where poachers deliberately lace large mammal carcasses (like elephants or buffalo) with toxic pesticides to eliminate vultures circling overhead and signaling illicit activities, has also led to mass die-offs. In South Africa’s Kruger National Park, two recent incidents resulted in the deaths of 154 White-backed Vultures after feeding on poisoned elephant carcasses.

Since January 2019, at least 450 vultures of four threatened species, along with other predators, have been killed in at least 13 incidents in Kruger National Park due to poisoned poached animal carcasses. The Endangered Wildlife Trust (EWT) records show over 1,200 vultures were deliberately poisoned in southern and eastern Africa in 2019, and none of these incidents were attributed to lead ammunition.

Africa’s vulture populations have declined by an average of 62% over the past three decades, with some species crashing by 80%, primarily due to “large scale poisoning,” not lead ammunition.

The misuse of agricultural poisons is cited as the leading cause of mortality in gamebirds in South Africa, with 14% of farms reporting gamebird poisoning, followed by habitat destruction and pollution. These poisons can also secondarily affect vultures.

(Figure 1)

Limited Evidence of Substantial Lead Fragments in South African Vulture Necropsies

While the van den Heever et al. (2019) study inferred that metallic lead fragments were the likely source of elevated lead levels in South African vultures due to the unique physiology of vulture digestion and the right-skewed distribution of blood lead values, the presented documents do not provide extensive data on the direct discovery and quantification of “substantial lead fragments” in necropsies of South African vultures compared to other continents. The focus is often on lead levels in tissues (blood and bone) which infer, rather than explicitly report the source of poisoning.

However, organizations like SAWA argue that such population-level impacts from lead ammunition are minimal, especially in South Africa where bird hunter numbers are comparatively low and lead dispersal from hunting is considered negligible when compared to other sources like the mining industry, which can disperse 85 tons of lead per month into the environment from detonators. SAWA contends that if lead in ammunition had a major impact, its negative effects would have been widely witnessed decades or centuries ago.

In defence of Hunters and Lead Ammunition

Proponents of lead-based ammunition, such as BASC and NSSF, present several arguments against a ‘blanket’ ban, promulgated by anti-hunting semitism:

Economic Impact and Conservation Contributions: Hunting tourism significantly contributes to the South African economy, with a total impact estimated at USD 2.5 billion. This industry exhibits a production multiplier of 2.97, meaning that every USD 1 spent by hunting tourists generates an additional USD 1.97 in production. Hunting tourism also supports approximately 95,000 job opportunities in South Africa, predominantly benefiting lower-skilled workers in rural areas (van der Merwe & Saayman, 2025). These occupations include trackers, skinners, farm workers, and cleaning and maintenance staff, highlighting the sector’s importance in employing a vulnerable segment of the population (van der Merwe & Saayman, 2025).

A total phase-out of lead ammunition would create barriers to hunting participation, reduce spending, and negatively impact these economies. Hunters are conservationists who play a vital role in managing the natural environment, with their financial contributions (e.g., excise taxes on ammunition) serving as a primary source for wildlife conservation funding. A reduction in hunting participation would directly lead to a decrease in conservation actions.

Population-Level Impact Focus: BASC and NSSF argue that risks from lead ammunition should be addressed at the population level. They state that if there is no evidence of poisoning impact at a population level, further legislation is not justified. They point to the significant increase in raptor populations across North America despite continued use of traditional ammunition as evidence that it does not cause population-level harm.

Effectiveness and Practicality of Alternatives: There are no direct substitutes for lead shot, and alternative shot types (bismuth, steel, tungsten-based) each have strengths and weaknesses, potentially requiring adjustments in shooting practices and extra attention to gun safety. Concerns exist about the universal availability and affordability of alternatives, especially outside Europe and America. In South Africa, steel shot, the closest alternative in price, is over three times more expensive than lead loads. Some countries that do not load their own ammunition fear that supply will not meet demand if a total ban is implemented. Norway, for example, reversed its ban on lead ammunition (outside wetlands and clay pigeon shooting grounds) in 2015 due to insufficient evidence to support the ban and a lack of suitably effective and varied alternatives.

Contemporary ballistics is an advanced, scientifically driven discipline focused on minimizing bullet fragmentation while ensuring effective and humane results. When a projectile enters a carcass, it creates a wound channel comprising: A permanent cavity, representing crushed and lacerated tissue directly in the bullet’s path, and a temporary cavity, a larger, short-lived displacement caused by rapid energy transfer. The kinetic energy delivered – especially at high velocity – determines the scope of this cavitation and tissue destruction. However, much of the destructive power often comes from fragmentation – both the bullet shattering and bones breaking into secondary projectiles, creating multiple wound tracts and extensive tissue damage.

To combat this, modern hunting bullets (e.g., bonded, full-metal-jacket, or monolithic copper designs) are engineered for controlled expansion without breaking apart, preserving structural integrity so energy is delivered cleanly and predictably. As forensic and ballistic science emphasizes, non-deforming rounds penetrate deeply with minimal collateral damage, while expanding bullets do so in a measured way, ensuring humane field performance without excessive fragmentation.

In short, modern ballistics prioritize bullet design that balances deep, clean wound channels with minimal fragment dispersal, benefiting both hunting effectiveness and environmental safety.

Human Health and Food Safety: Simple game meat handling practices, such as removing the wound channel (5% of meat containing highest lead levels), can reduce average lead levels by 95%, effectively eliminating risk for rifle-shot game by removing visibly damaged meat plus an additional 10cm. Consumers who eat more game are typically more likely to take these steps to minimize exposure. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) found that, at a population level, lead from game meat accounts for less than 0.1% of the average consumer’s lead intake. Furthermore, the UK Food Standards Agency found that nearly 90% of game consumers already consume game at levels below their guidance, and two-thirds practice game meat handling, meaning consumption of game does not equate to consumption of lead.

In conclusion, while lead exposure in South African vultures is a concern and warrants continued research and mitigation, the comprehensive evidence from various sources indicates that it is not the dominant cause of mass mortality. Instead, intentional poisoning for traditional medicine and poaching concealment, as well as interactions with energy infrastructure and habitat loss, appear to be more immediate and widespread threats to vulture populations. Decisions regarding ammunition regulation should be science-based and proportionate, considering the complex interplay of factors affecting vulture survival and the significant contributions of hunting to rural economies and conservation efforts.

Globally, sustained misinformation campaigns have increasingly targeted sustainable-use practices – particularly hunting – by distorting facts and spreading propaganda through mainstream media channels. These narratives often lead to misinformed public sentiment and politically motivated policymaking that undermines proven conservation models and threatens the livelihoods of those who rely on them. In response to these challenges, the Sustainable Use Coalition of South Africa (SUCo-SA) was established, of which SAWA is a proud member. This coalition of like-minded organisations works collaboratively to advocate for science-based conservation policies, particularly on international platforms such as CITES, by presenting credible data through a unified voice.

References

BASC (British Association for Shooting & Conservation), 2024. Opposing IUCN Motion 90: Phasing-out the use of lead ammunition.
BirdLife South Africa (BLSA), n.d. Position statement on lead poisoning in wild birds.
CHASA (Confederation of Hunting Associations of South Africa), n.d. 1st submission on the draft multi-species biodiversity management plan for vultures in South Africa.
Endangered Wildlife Trust and The Peregrine Fund, 2020. The African Wildlife Poisoning Database (AWPD). (Figure 1: AWPD Incident Map).

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